History of Climate Science

The history of climate science goes back to the early 1900’s. This section contains a chronological listing of relevant climate science discoveries and events related to anthropogenic global warming. The information here was compiled by Spencer Weart (see links for reference).

The Short History:

• 1824 – Joseph Fourier discovered the greenhouse effect.
• 1859 – John Tyndall discovered that H₂O and CO₂ absorb infrared confirming the Fourier greenhouse effect.
• 1896 – Svante Arrhenius proposed human CO₂ emissions would prevent earth from entering next ice age (challenged 1906).
• 1950’s Guy Callendar found H2O and CO2 did not overlap all spectra bands, therefore warming from CO₂ expected (countered the 1906 objections against Arrhenius).
• 1955 – Hans Suess identified the isotopic signature of industrial based CO₂ emissions.
• 1956 – Gilbert Plass calculated adding CO₂ would significantly change radiation balance.
• 1957 – Revelle/Suess suggested oceans would absorb less CO₂ causing more global warming than predicted.
• 1958/60’s – Charles David Keeling proved CO₂ was increasing in the atmosphere.
• 70’s/80’s Suke Manabe and James Hansen began modeling climate projections.
• Current: NCAR, GISS, Hadley, CRU, RSS TLT, UAH, MSU, Glacier Melt, Sea Level Rise, Latitudinal Shift all confirm models.

The (more) Detailed History:

1800-1870

• Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO₂) in the atmosphere, as later measured in ancient ice, is about 290 ppm (parts per million). Mean global temperature (1850-1870) is about 13.6°C.
• First Industrial Revolution. Coal, railroads, and land clearing speed up greenhouse gas emission, while better agriculture and sanitation speed up population growth.

1824

• Joseph Fourier calculates that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere. =>Simple models

1859

• Tyndall discovers that some gases block infrared radiation. He suggests that changes in the concentration of the gases could bring climate change. =>Other gases

1896

• Arrhenius publishes first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO₂. =>Simple models

1897

• Chamberlin produces a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks. =>Simple models

1870-1910

• Second Industrial Revolution. Fertilizers and other chemicals, electricity, and public health further accelerate growth.

1914-1918

• World War I. Governments learn to mobilize and control industrial societies.

1920-1925

• Opening of Texas and Persian Gulf oil fields inaugurates era of cheap energy.

1930s

• Global warming trend since late 19th century reported. =>Modern temp’s=>Climate cycles
• Milankovitch proposes orbital changes as the cause of ice ages.

1938

• Callendar argues that CO₂ greenhouse global warming is underway, reviving interest in the question. =>CO₂ greenhouse

1939-1945

• World War II. Grand strategy is largely driven by a struggle to control oil fields.

1945

• US Office of Naval Research begins generous funding of many fields of science, some of which happen to be useful for understanding climate change. =>Government

1956

• Ewing and Donn offer a feedback model for quick ice age onset. =>Simple models
• Phillips produces a somewhat realistic computer model of the global atmosphere. =>Models (GCMs)
• Plass calculates that adding CO₂ to the atmosphere will have a significant effect on the radiation balance. =>Radiation math

1957

• Launch of Soviet Sputnik satellite. Cold War concerns support 1957-58 International Geophysical Year, bringing new funding and coordination to climate studies. =>International
• Revelle finds that CO₂ produced by humans will not be readily absorbed by the oceans. =>CO₂ greenhouse

1958

• Telescope studies show a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the atmosphere of Venus far above the boiling point of water. =>Venus & Mars

1960

• Mitchell reports downturn of global temperatures since the early 1940s.=>Modern temp’s
• Keeling accurately measures CO₂ in the Earth’s atmosphere and detects an annual rise. =>CO₂ greenhouse The level is 315 ppm. Mean global temperature (five-year average) is 13.9°C.

1962

• Cuban Missile Crisis, peak of the Cold War.

1963

• Calculations suggest that feedback with water vapor could make the climate acutely sensitive to changes in CO₂ level. =>Radiation math

1965

• Boulder, Colo. meeting on causes of climate change: Lorenz and others point out the chaotic nature of climate system and the possibility of sudden shifts. =>Chaos theory

1966

• Emiliani’s analysis of deep-sea cores shows the timing of ice ages was set by small orbital shifts, suggesting that the climate system is sensitive to small changes. =>Climate cycles

1967

• International Global Atmospheric Research Program established, mainly to gather data for better short-range weather prediction, but including climate.International
• Manabe and Wetherald make a convincing calculation that doubling CO₂ would raise world temperatures a couple of degrees. =>Radiation math

1968

• Studies suggest a possibility of collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, which would raise sea levels catastrophically. =>Sea rise & ice

1969

• Astronauts walk on the Moon, and people perceive the Earth as a fragile whole. =>Public opinion
• Budyko and Sellers present models of catastrophic ice-albedo feedbacks. =>Simple models
• Nimbus III satellite begins to provide comprehensive global atmospheric temperature measurements. =>Government

1970

• First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation. =>Public opinion
• Creation of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the world’s leading funder of climate research. =>Government
• Aerosols from human activity are shown to be increasing swiftly. Bryson claims they counteract global warming and may bring serious cooling. =>Aerosols

1971

• SMIC conference of leading scientists reports a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans, calls for an organized research effort. =>International
• Mariner 9 spacecraft finds a great dust storm warming the atmosphere of Mars, plus indications of a radically different climate in the past .=>Venus & Mars

1972

• Ice cores and other evidence show big climate shifts in the past between relatively stable modes in the space of a thousand years or so, especially around 11,000 years ago. =>Rapid change

1973

• Oil embargo and price rise bring first “energy crisis”. =>Government

1974

• Serious droughts since 1972 increase concern about climate, with cooling from aerosols suspected to be as likely as warming; scientists are doubtful as journalists talk of a new ice age.=>Public opinion

1975

• Warnings about environmental effects of airplanes leads to investigations of trace gases in the stratosphere and discovery of danger to ozone layer. =>Other gases
• Manabe and collaborators produce complex but plausible computer models which show a temperature rise of several degrees for doubled CO₂. =>Models (GCMs)

1976

• Studies show that CFCs (1975) and also methane and ozone (1976) can make a serious contribution to the greenhouse effect. =>Other gases
• Deep-sea cores show a dominating influence from 100,000-year Milankovitch orbital changes, emphasizing the role of feedbacks. =>Climate cycles
• Deforestation and other ecosystem changes are recognized as major factors in the future of the climate. =>Biosphere
• Eddy shows that there were prolonged periods without sunspots in past centuries, corresponding to cold periods .=>Solar variation

1977

• Scientific opinion tends to converge on global warming, not cooling, as the chief climate risk in next century. =>Public opinion

1978

• Attempts to coordinate climate research in US end with an inadequate National Climate Program Act, accompanied by rapid but temporary growth in funding. =>Government

1979

• Second oil “energy crisis.” Strengthened environmental movement encourages renewable energy sources, inhibits nuclear energy growth. =>Public opinion
• US National Academy of Sciences report finds it highly credible that doubling CO₂ will bring 1.5-4.5°C global warming. =>Models (GCMs)
• World Climate Research Programme launched to coordinate international research. =>International