1500 Year Climate Cycle

Well, actually the 1470 Year Climate Cycle – The oft quoted 1500 year cycle is a popular myth perpetrated by Fred Singer and Dennis Avery. It is also a real climate cycle known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. It is not a global climate warming or cooling however. It appears to be an interval event of heat exchange in the oceanic system.

Isotope data for Antarctic and Greenland ice cores

Antarctic/Greenland Isotope Data

Fred Singer, a notorious climate denialist, is also quite well known for his actions lobbying fo rthe tobacco industry with his cliams that second hand smoke is not bad for your health. Of course that is contrary to what is solidly known in the medical field. but that did not stop him.

As to his lobbying that global warming is all bunk? Well, when a CBS reporter asked him



“They don’t carry a note on on a dollar bill saying this comes from the tobacco industry. In any case I was not aware of it and I didn’t ask ?? where they get their money, that’s not my business.”


“They’re ignorant.”


“All of them!”


“All of us that hold that view yes, the others have not studied the data the way I have.”


“Why would they not?”


“I don’t know you have to ask them, don’t ask me.”


Singer is also a notorious ‘second hand smoke is bad for you’, denialist wrote a book with a fellow named Dennis Avery, an economist.

The book by Singer and Avery purports that there is a regular global warming that occurs. Unfortunately they forgot to check the facts. There is a change that occurs, not a warming. In other words, the D-O events seem to be a part of a seesaw effect that occurs. When the Arctic gets cold, the Antarctic warms.

The origins of the driver mechanism are unknown so any claims Singer and Avery might wish to claim are at this time still completely unfounded.

Those that have studied D-O events have expressed


Examination of  D-O events shows that they have a periodicity of 1470 years. According to Ramstorf et al, The origin of the pacing remains a mystery.



  • Braun, Holger; et al. (2005). “Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model”. Nature 438: 208–211. doi:10.1038/nature04121. 
  • Schulz, Michael (2002). “On the 1470-year pacing of Dansgaard-Oeschger warm events”. Paleoceanography 17 (2): 1014. doi:10.1029/2000PA000571. 
  • Voelker, Antje H.L. (2002). “Global distribution of centennial-scale records for Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3: a database”. Quaternary Science Reviews 21: 1185–1212. doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00139-1.