1500 Year Climate Cycle
Well, actually the 1470 Year Climate Cycle – The oft quoted 1500 year cycle is a popular myth perpetrated by Fred Singer and Dennis Avery. It is also a real climate cycle known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. It is not a global climate warming or cooling however. It appears to be an interval event of heat exchange in the oceanic system.
Antarctic/Greenland Isotope Data
Fred Singer, a notorious climate denialist, is also quite well known for his actions lobbying fo rthe tobacco industry with his cliams that second hand smoke is not bad for your health. Of course that is contrary to what is solidly known in the medical field. but that did not stop him.
As to his lobbying that global warming is all bunk? Well, when a CBS reporter asked him
Singer:
“They don’t carry a note on on a dollar bill saying this comes from the tobacco industry. In any case I was not aware of it and I didn’t ask ?? where they get their money, that’s not my business.”
Singer:
“They’re ignorant.”
Reporter:
“All of them!”
Singer:
“All of us that hold that view yes, the others have not studied the data the way I have.”
Reporter:
“Why would they not?”
Singer:
“I don’t know you have to ask them, don’t ask me.”
Singer is also a notorious ‘second hand smoke is bad for you’, denialist wrote a book with a fellow named Dennis Avery, an economist.
The book by Singer and Avery purports that there is a regular global warming that occurs. Unfortunately they forgot to check the facts. There is a change that occurs, not a warming. In other words, the D-O events seem to be a part of a seesaw effect that occurs. When the Arctic gets cold, the Antarctic warms.
The origins of the driver mechanism are unknown so any claims Singer and Avery might wish to claim are at this time still completely unfounded.
Those that have studied D-O events have expressed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard-Oeschger_event
Examination of D-O events shows that they have a periodicity of 1470 years. According to Ramstorf et al, The origin of the pacing remains a mystery.
Links
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard-Oeschger_event
- http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/11/avery-and-singer-unstoppable-hot-air/
- http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/06/curve-manipulation-lesson-2/
References
- Richard B. Alley (2000). “Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes“. PNAS 97 (4): 1331–1334. doi:. PMID 10677460. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/4/1331.
- Bond, G.C.; Lotti, R. (1995–02-17). “Iceberg Discharges into the North Atlantic on Millennial Time Scales During the Last Glaciation”. Science 267 (5200): 1005. doi:. PMID 17811441.
- Bond, G.; et al. (1997). “A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates” (PDF). Science 278 (5341): 1257–1266. doi:. http://rivernet.ncsu.edu/courselocker/PaleoClimate/Bond%20et%20al.,%201997%20Millenial%20Scale%20Holocene%20Change.pdf.
- Bond et al. (1999). Bond, G.C., Showers, W., Elliot, M., Evans, M., Lotti, R., Hajdas, I., Bonani, G., Johnson, S., (1999). “The North Atlantic’s 1–2 kyr climate rhythm: relation to Heinrich events, Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles and the little ice age“. in Clark, P.U., Webb, R.S., Keigwin, L.D.. Mechanisms of Global Change at Millennial Time Scales. Geophysical Monograph. American Geophysical Union, Washington DC. pp. 59–76. ISBN 0-87590-033-X.
- Bond, G.; et al. (2001). “Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene”. Science 294 (5549): 2130–2136. doi:. PMID 11739949.
- Maslin, M.; Seidov, D.; Lowe, J. (2001). “Synthesis of the nature and causes of rapid climate transitions during the Quaternary” (PDF). Geophysical monograph 126: 9–52. http://www.essc.psu.edu/~dseidov/pdf_copies/maslin_seidov_levi_agu_book_2001.pdf. Retrieved 2008-03-06.
- Stefan Rahmstorf (2003). “Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock” (PDF). Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (10): 1510. doi:. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/rahmstorf_grl_2003.pdf.
- Braun, Holger; et al. (2005). “Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model”. Nature 438: 208–211. doi:.
- Schulz, Michael (2002). “On the 1470-year pacing of Dansgaard-Oeschger warm events”. Paleoceanography 17 (2): 1014. doi:.
- Voelker, Antje H.L. (2002). “Global distribution of centennial-scale records for Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3: a database”. Quaternary Science Reviews 21: 1185–1212. doi:.