A letter from 255 members of the National Academy of Science (NAS) published in Science Magazine, May 7, 2010. The subject is ‘Climate Change and the Integrity of Science’. The letter is a substantial statement, and yet the media did not pick it up.
Global Warming
Anyone that has been around scientists very much knows how difficult it is to get two or three of them to agree on anything, let alone something as complex as climate. The NAS letter has a profound message in this simple fact: 255 members signed this letter.
‘Climate Change and the Integrity of Science’
We are deeply disturbed by the recent escalation of political assaults on scientists in general and on climate scientists in particular. All citizens should understand some basic scientific facts. There is always some uncertainty associated with scientific conclusions; science never absolutely proves anything. When someone says that society should wait until scientists are absolutely certain before taking any action, it is the same as saying society should never take action. For a problem as potentially catastrophic as climate change, taking no action poses a dangerous risk for our planet.
Scientific conclusions derive from an understanding of basic laws supported by laboratory experiments, observations of nature, and mathematical and computer modeling. Like all human beings, scientists make mistakes, but the scientific process is designed to find and correct them. This process is inherently adversarial— scientists build reputations and gain recognition not only for supporting conventional wisdom, but even more so for demonstrating that the scientific consensus is wrong and that there is a better explanation. That’s what Galileo, Pasteur, Darwin, and Einstein did. But when some conclusions have been thoroughly and deeply tested, questioned, and examined, they gain the status of “well- established theories” and are often spoken of as “facts.”
For instance, there is compelling scientific evidence that our planet is about 4.5bn years old (the theory of the origin of Earth), that our universe was born from a single event about 14bn years ago (the Big Bang theory), and that today’s organisms evolved from ones living in the past (the theory of evolution). Even as these are overwhelmingly accepted by the scientific community, fame still awaits anyone who could show these theories to be wrong. Climate change now falls into this category: there is compelling, comprehensive, and consistent objective evidence that humans are changing the climate in ways that threaten our societies and the ecosystems on which we depend.
Many recent assaults on climate science and, more disturbingly, on climate scientists by climate change deniers, are typically driven by special interests or dogma, not by an honest effort to provide an alternative theory that credibly satisfies the evidence. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientific assessments of climate change, which involve thousands of scientists producing massive and comprehensive reports, have, quite expectedly and normally, made some mistakes. When errors are pointed out, they are corrected.
But there is nothing remotely identified in the recent events that changes the fundamental conclusions about climate change:
(i) The planet is warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. A snowy winter in Washington does not alter this fact.
(ii) Most of the increase in the concentration of these gases over the last century is due to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
(iii) Natural causes always play a role in changing Earth’s climate, but are now being overwhelmed by human-induced changes.
(iv) Warming the planet will cause many other climatic patterns to change at speeds unprecedented in modern times, including increasing rates of sea-level rise and alterations in the hydrologic cycle. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide are making the oceans more acidic.
(v) The combination of these complex climate changes threatens coastal communities and cities, our food and water supplies, marine and freshwater ecosystems, forests, high mountain environments, and far more.
Much more can be, and has been, said by the world’s scientific societies, national academies, and individuals, but these conclusions should be enough to indicate why scientists are concerned about what future generations will face from business- as-usual practices. We urge our policymakers and the public to move forward immediately to address the causes of climate change, including the unrestrained burning of fossil fuels.
We also call for an end to McCarthy- like threats of criminal prosecution against our colleagues based on innuendo and guilt by association, the harassment of scientists by politicians seeking distractions to avoid taking action, and the outright lies being spread about them. Society has two choices: we can ignore the science and hide our heads in the sand and hope we are lucky, or we can act in the public interest to reduce the threat of global climate change quickly and substantively. The good news is that smart and effective actions are possible. But delay must not be an option.
The signatories are all members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences but are not speaking on its behalf or on behalf of their institutions:
- Adams, Robert McCormick, University of California, San Diego
- Amasino, Richard M, University of Wisconsin
- Anders, Edward, University of Chicago
- Anderson, David J, California Institute of Technology
- Anderson, Wyatt W, University of Georgia
- Anselin, Luc E, Arizona State University
- Arroyo, Mary Kalin, University of Chile
- Asfaw, Berhane, Rift Valley Research Service
- Ayala, Francisco J, University of California, Irvine
- Bax, Adriaan, National Institutes of Health Bebbington,
- Anthony J, University of Manchester
- Bell, Gordon, Microsoft Research
- Bennett, Michael V L, Albert Einstein College of Medicine
- Bennetzen, Jeffrey L, University of Georgia
- Berenbaum, May R, University of Illinois
- Berlin, Overton Brent, University of Georgia
- Bjorkman, Pamela J, California Institute of Technology
- Blackburn, Elizabeth, University of California, San Francisco
- Blamont, Jacques E, Centre National d’ Etudes Spatiales
- Botchan, Michael R, University of California, Berkeley
- Boyer, John S, University of Delaware
- Boyle, Ed A, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Branton, Daniel, Harvard University
- Briggs, Steven P, University of California, San Diego
- Briggs, Winslow R, Carnegie Institution of Washington
- Brill, Winston J, Winston J. Brill and Associates
- Britten, Roy J, California Institute of Technology
- Broecker, Wallace S, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Columbia University
- Brown, James H, University of New Mexico
- Brown, Patrick O, Stanford University School of Medicine
- Brunger, Axel T, Stanford University
- Cairns, Jr John, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
- Canfield, Donald E, University of Southern Denmark
- Carpenter, Stephen R, University of Wisconsin
- Carrington, James C, Oregon State University
- Cashmore, Anthony R, University of Pennsylvania
- Castilla, Juan Carlos, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
- Cazenave, Anny, Centre National d’ Etudes Spatiales
- Chapin, III F, Stuart, University of Alaska
- Ciechanover, Aaron J, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology
- Clapham, David E, Harvard Medical School
- Clark, William C, Harvard University
- Clayton, Robert N, University of Chicago
- Coe, Michael D, Yale University
- Conwell, Esther M, University of Rochester
- Cowling, Ellis B, North Carolina State University
- Cowling, Richard M, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University
- Cox, Charles S, University of California, San Diego
- Croteau, Rodney B, Washington State University
- Crothers, Donald M, Yale University
- Crutzen, Paul J, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
- Daily, Gretchen C, Stanford University
- Dalrymple, Brent G, Oregon State University
- Dangl, Jeffrey L, University of North Carolina
- Darst, Seth A, Rockefeller University
- Davies, David R, National Institutes of Health
- Davis, Margaret B, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
- De Camilli, Pietro V, Yale University School of Medicine
- Dean, Caroline, John Innes Centre
- DeFries, Ruth S, Columbia University
- Deisenhofer, Johann, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas
- Delmer, Deborah P, University of California, Davis
- DeLong, Edward F, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- DeRosier, David J, Brandeis University
- Diener, Theodor O, University of Maryland
- Dirzo, Rodolfo, Stanford University
- Dixon, Jack E, Howard Hughes Medical Center
- Donoghue, Michael J, Yale University
- Doolittle, Russell F, University of California, San Diego
- Dunne, Thomas, University of California, Santa Barbara
- Ehrlich, Paul R, Stanford University
- Eisenstadt, Shmuel N, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
- Eisner, Thomas, Cornell University
- Emanuel, Kerry A, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Englander, Walter S, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine
- Ernst, W, G, Stanford University
- Falkowski, Paul G, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey
- Feher, George, University of California, San Diego
- Ferejohn, John A, Stanford University
- Fersht, Sir Alan, University of Cambridge
- Fischer, Edmond H, University of Washington
- Fischer, Robert, University of California, Berkeley
- Flannery, Kent V, University of Michigan
- Frank, Joachim, Columbia University
- Frey, Perry A, University of Wisconsin
- Fridovich, Irwin, Duke University Medical Center
- Frieden, Carl, Washington University School of Medicine
- Futuyma, Douglas J, Stony Brook University
- Gardner, Wilford R, University of California, Berkeley
- Garrett, Christopher J R, University of Victoria
- Gilbert, Walter, Harvard University
- Gleick, Peter H, Pacific Institute, Oakland
- Goldberg, Robert B, University of California, Los Angeles
- Goodenough, Ward H, University of Pennsylvania
- Goodman, Corey S, venBio, LLC
- Goodman, Morris, Wayne State University School of Medicine
- Greengard, Paul, Rockefeller University
- Hake, Sarah, Agricultural Research Service
- Hammel, Gene, University of California, Berkeley
- Hanson, Susan, Clark University
- Harrison, Stephen C, Harvard Medical School
- Hart, Stanley R, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
- Hartl, Daniel L, Harvard University
- Haselkorn, Robert, University of Chicago
- Hawkes, Kristen, University of Utah
- Hayes, John M, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
- Hille, Bertil, University of Washington
- Hökfelt, Tomas, Karolinska Institutet
- House, James S, University of Michigan
- Hout, Michael, University of California, Berkeley
- Hunten, Donald M, University of Arizona
- Izquierdo, Ivan A, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul
- Jagendorf, André T, Cornell University
- Janzen, Daniel H, University of Pennsylvania
- Jeanloz, Raymond, University of California, Berkeley
- Jencks, Christopher S, Harvard University
- Jury, William A, University of California, Riverside
- Kaback, H Ronald, University of California, Los Angeles
- Kailath, Thomas, Stanford University
- Kay, Paul, International Computer Science Institute
- Kay, Steve A, University of California, San Diego
- Kennedy, Donald, Stanford University
- Kerr, Allen, University of Adelaide
- Kessler, Ronald C, Harvard Medical School
- Khush, Gurdev S, University of California, Davis
- Kieffer, Susan W, University of Illinois
- Kirch, Patrick V, University of California, Berkeley
- Kirk, Kent C, University of Wisconsin
- Kivelson, Margaret G, University of California, Los Angeles
- Klinman, Judith P, University of California, Berkeley
- Klug, Sir Aaron, Medical Research Council
- Knopoff, Leon, University of California, Los Angeles
- Kornberg, Sir Hans, Boston University
- Kutzbach, John E, University of Wisconsin
- Lagarias, J Clark, University of California, Davis
- Lambeck, Kurt, Australian National University
- Landy, Arthur, Brown University
- Langmuir, Charles H, Harvard University
- Larkins, Brian A, University of Arizona
- Le Pichon, Xavier T, College de France
- Lenski, Richard E, Michigan State University
- Leopold, Estella B, University of Washington
- Levin, Simon A, Princeton University
- Levitt, Michael, Stanford University School of Medicine
- Likens, Gene E, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies
- Lippincott-Schwartz, Jennifer, National Institutes of Health
- Lorand, Laszlo, Northwestern University
- Lovejoy, Owen C, Kent State University
- Lynch, Michael, Indiana University
- Mabogunje, Akin L, Foundation for Development and Environmental Initiatives
- Malone, Thomas F, North Carolina State University
- Manabe, Syukuro, Princeton University
- Marcus, Joyce, University of Michigan
- Massey, Douglas S, Princeton University
- McWilliams, Jim C, University of California, Los Angeles
- Medina, Ernesto, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research
- Melosh, Jay H, Purdue University
- Meltzer, David J, Southern Methodist University
- Michener, Charles D, University of Kansas
- Miles, Edward L, University of Washington
- Mooney, Harold A, Stanford University
- Moore, Peter B, Yale University
- Morel, Francois M M, Princeton University
- Mosley-Thompson, Ellen, Ohio State University
- Moss, Bernard, National Institutes of Health
- Munk, Walter H, University of California, San Diego
- Myers, Norman, University of Oxford
- Nair, Balakrish G, National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases
- Nathans, Jeremy, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
- Nester, Eugene W, University of Washington
- Nicoll, Roger A, University of California, San Francisco
- Novick, Richard P, New York University School of Medicine
- O’Connell, James F, University of Utah
- Olsen, Paul E, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
- Opdyke, Neil D, University of Florida
- Oster, George F, University of California, Berkeley
- Ostrom, Elinor, Indiana University
- Pace, Norman R, University of Colorado
- Paine, Robert T, University of Washington
- Palmiter, Richard D, University of Washington School of Medicine
- Pedlosky, Joseph, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
- Petsko, Gregory A, Brandeis University
- Pettengill, Gordon H, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Philander, George S, Princeton University
- Piperno, Dolores R, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
- Pollard, Thomas D, Yale University
- Price Jr. Buford P, University of California, Berkeley
- Reichard, Peter A, Karolinska Institutet
- Reskin, Barbara F, University of Washington
- Ricklefs, Robert E, University of Missouri
- Rivest, Ronald L, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Roberts, John D, California Institute of Technology
- Romney, Kimball A, University of California, Irvine
- Rossmann, Michael G, Purdue University
- Russell, David W, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center of Dallas
- Rutter, William J, Synergenics, LLC
- Sabloff, Jeremy A, University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archeology and Anthropology
- Sagdeev, Roald Z, University of Maryland
- Sahlins, Marshall D, University of Chicago
- Salmond, Anne, University of Auckland
- Sanes, Joshua R, Harvard University
- Schekman, Randy, University of California, Berkeley
- Schellnhuber, John, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- Schindler, David W, University of Alberta
- Schmitt, Johanna, Brown University
- Schneider, Stephen H, Woods Institute for the Environment
- Schramm, Vern L, Albert Einstein College of Medicine
- Sederoff Ronald R, North Carolina State University
- Shatz, Carla J, Stanford University
- Sherman, Fred, University of Rochester Medical Center
- Sidman, Richard L, Harvard Medical School
- Sieh, Kerry, Nanyang Technological University
- Simons, Elwyn L, Duke University Lemur Center
- Singer, Burton H, Princeton University
- Singer, Maxine F, Carnegie Institution of Washington
- Skyrms, Brian, University of California, Irvine
- Sleep, Norman H, Stanford University
- Smith, Bruce D, Smithsonian Institution
- Snyder, Solomon H, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
- Sokal, Robert R, Stony Brook University
- Spencer, Charles S, American Museum of Natural History
- Steitz, Thomas A, Yale University
- Strier, Karen B, University of Wisconsin
- Südhof, Thomas C, Stanford University School of Medicine
- Taylor, Susan S, University of California, San Diego
- Terborgh, John, Duke University
- Thomas, David Hurst, American Museum of Natural History
- Thompson, Lonnie G, Ohio State University
- Tjian, Robert T, Howard Hughes Medical Institute
- Turner, Monica G, University of Wisconsin
- Uyeda, Seiya, Tokai University
- Valentine, James W, University of California, Berkeley
- Valentine, Joan Selverstone, University of California, Los Angeles
- Van Etten, James L, University of Nebraska
- Van Holde, Kensal E, Oregon State University
- Vaughan, Martha, National Institutes of Health
- Verba Sidney, Harvard University
- Von Hippel, Peter H, University of Oregon
- Wake, David B, University of California, Berkeley
- Walker, Alan, Pennsylvania State University
- Walker John E, Medical Research Council
- Watson, Bruce E, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
- Watson, Patty Jo, Washington University, St. Louis
- Weigel, Detlef, Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology
- Wessler, Susan R, University of Georgia
- West-Eberhard, Mary Jane, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
- White, Tim D, University of California, Berkeley
- Wilson, William Julius, Harvard University
- Wolfenden, Richard V, University of North Carolina
- Wood, John A, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
- Woodwell, George M, Woods Hole Research Center
- Wright, Jr Herbert E, University of Minnesota
- Wu, Carl, National Institutes of Health
- Wunsch, Carl, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Zoback, Mary Lou, Risk Management Solutions, Inc